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Princípios para Lidar com a Nova Ordem Mundial: Porque falham e triunfam as nações by Ray Dalio
p9ng's review against another edition
4.0
I read this to better understand Dalio's approach to markets and the current state of play because I'm a neophyte when it comes to economics and investing. It was a slog to get through this book, but there is a trick Dalio reveals early on, just read the bolded paragraphs for a highlighted version. There is a lot of repetition, and the bolded text got me out of a quagmire.
The book reveals an interesting approach to the dynamics of world systems. Dalio tries to quantify very squishy topics, such as 'innovation' which act as indicators of what period in the cycle each of his empires are in. The indicators used for each measure seem somewhat arbitrary, at least for the more sociological measures (less arbitrary when it comes to debt, GDP, or death rate), but the point is to try building an index for a topic and improve it over time. Overall this reminds me of Isaac Asimov's [b:Foundation|29579|Foundation (Foundation, #1)|Isaac Asimov|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1417900846l/29579._SX50_.jpg|1783981], and the character Hari Selden who created a method to predict the rise and fall of empires. Here, Dalio has shared his own measures to avoid financial risk as countries falter or enter periods of destabilization. Dalio uses his own timelines for the start and end of major wars, as he mentions the market effects actually begin before the first shots were fired.
Not being an investment professional, it seems to me that if I bet against the market - I am taking money from someone else. That spirit of competitiveness seems to go with the profession, and it's part of how we do business in America. So I ask myself, morally "do we need to be in competition?"
This question resonates with Suzanne Simard's observations in [b:Finding the Mother Tree: Discovering the Wisdom of the Forest|54976983|Finding the Mother Tree Discovering the Wisdom of the Forest|Suzanne Simard|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1614081087l/54976983._SX50_.jpg|85755601]; it is difficult for us to recognize a symbiotic relationship and we tend to frame our views (and plant forests) in a framework of competition.
Dalio also posits that we are in a cycle of evolution (social and economic) that spirals upward as we grow in learning, wealth and productivity. As the American empire is in decline, the Chinese empire is growing and humanity in general will be better off as this evolution continues through the inevitable fall and rise of empires. However, this idea of an 'upward spiral' seems aspirational to me.
The book reveals an interesting approach to the dynamics of world systems. Dalio tries to quantify very squishy topics, such as 'innovation' which act as indicators of what period in the cycle each of his empires are in. The indicators used for each measure seem somewhat arbitrary, at least for the more sociological measures (less arbitrary when it comes to debt, GDP, or death rate), but the point is to try building an index for a topic and improve it over time. Overall this reminds me of Isaac Asimov's [b:Foundation|29579|Foundation (Foundation, #1)|Isaac Asimov|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1417900846l/29579._SX50_.jpg|1783981], and the character Hari Selden who created a method to predict the rise and fall of empires. Here, Dalio has shared his own measures to avoid financial risk as countries falter or enter periods of destabilization. Dalio uses his own timelines for the start and end of major wars, as he mentions the market effects actually begin before the first shots were fired.
Not being an investment professional, it seems to me that if I bet against the market - I am taking money from someone else. That spirit of competitiveness seems to go with the profession, and it's part of how we do business in America. So I ask myself, morally "do we need to be in competition?"
This question resonates with Suzanne Simard's observations in [b:Finding the Mother Tree: Discovering the Wisdom of the Forest|54976983|Finding the Mother Tree Discovering the Wisdom of the Forest|Suzanne Simard|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1614081087l/54976983._SX50_.jpg|85755601]; it is difficult for us to recognize a symbiotic relationship and we tend to frame our views (and plant forests) in a framework of competition.
Dalio also posits that we are in a cycle of evolution (social and economic) that spirals upward as we grow in learning, wealth and productivity. As the American empire is in decline, the Chinese empire is growing and humanity in general will be better off as this evolution continues through the inevitable fall and rise of empires. However, this idea of an 'upward spiral' seems aspirational to me.
journeytothenewworlds07's review against another edition
5.0
I would have liked more of Ray offering his perspective and some predictions (even if they're wrong), but this was a very illuminating book. A great dive into historical market changes, major crises, military conflicts, and big interests. Offers some help in understanding some of the world today
benrogerswpg's review against another edition
2.0
Do Not Read - Get Megathreats Instead
I had mixed feelings about this.
On one hand, I found it interesting and informative about the economic state of the US. However, I had significant issues with the author's views on foreign policy and his bias towards China.
I almost felt that his views on China were incorrect and that he was essentially an apologist for their rise and communism. I was particularly upset by his support for companies like Tencent and Huawei, which (alleged) engage in data collection and intellectual property theft. I also disagreed with his view that human rights mean different things for different countries, and felt that this was a problematic stance.
Overall, I found the book to be angering and disappointing, with conflicting viewpoints and questionable motives. I would MUCH sooner recommended two different books, [b:MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them|61030508|MegaThreats Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them|Nouriel Roubini|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1660589467l/61030508._SY75_.jpg|96174823] and Bernie's [b:It's OK to Be Angry About Capitalism|63249703|It's OK to Be Angry About Capitalism|Bernie Sanders|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1669081225l/63249703._SY75_.jpg|99268991] instead.
Despite my criticisms, I acknowledge that the book had some merit in its discussion of the economic state of the US. However, concerns about the author's views on foreign policy and China outweighed this positive aspect, leading me to give the book a...
2.3/5
I had mixed feelings about this.
On one hand, I found it interesting and informative about the economic state of the US. However, I had significant issues with the author's views on foreign policy and his bias towards China.
I almost felt that his views on China were incorrect and that he was essentially an apologist for their rise and communism. I was particularly upset by his support for companies like Tencent and Huawei, which (alleged) engage in data collection and intellectual property theft. I also disagreed with his view that human rights mean different things for different countries, and felt that this was a problematic stance.
Overall, I found the book to be angering and disappointing, with conflicting viewpoints and questionable motives. I would MUCH sooner recommended two different books, [b:MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them|61030508|MegaThreats Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them|Nouriel Roubini|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1660589467l/61030508._SY75_.jpg|96174823] and Bernie's [b:It's OK to Be Angry About Capitalism|63249703|It's OK to Be Angry About Capitalism|Bernie Sanders|https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1669081225l/63249703._SY75_.jpg|99268991] instead.
Despite my criticisms, I acknowledge that the book had some merit in its discussion of the economic state of the US. However, concerns about the author's views on foreign policy and China outweighed this positive aspect, leading me to give the book a...
2.3/5