socraticgadfly's review against another edition
3.0
Peak PROFITABLE US oil may still have been in 1970, as anybody who knows anything about the recent fracking boom in the Permian knows that 20 percent of it, at minimum, is unprofitable. Peak GLOBAL PROFITABLE oil may or may not have been in 2005. On that, I doubt it, as fracking has been mainly a US phenomenon until recently, and even where adopted elsewhere, has probably not been adopted at a loss.
But, given global oil production is up more than 15 percent since then, contra fanbois of his claiming otherwise, we've not hit Peak Oil. Period and end of story.
The two swing states of Saudi Arabia and Russia certainly haven’t peaked, even if fields in European Russia (and Azerbaijan), West Siberia, and Ghawar are all deteriorating. And, one must wonder how true the claims of Matthew Simmons et al 15 years ago actually were. (That doesn't mean we should believe every word of Daniel Yergin, either.)
Other aspects appear dated. One is that lithium batteries have become feasible for hybrids (and nickel hydride has been used too, and still is). And, that means that battery storage technology for solar and wind becomes more feasible. That undercuts oh, about one-third of his pessimism about renewables.
That said, the non-peak of world oil means climate change becomes more problematic. And, in a “bootstrapping,” climate change opens more Arctic lands to oil exploration.
Even if the US has certainly already hit a peak in profitably produced oil, and in all likelihood, a peak in oil produced at any price, all of the factors above indicate that oil addiction isn’t going away.
That said, Kunstler was right about several things.
One is that renewable electric energy simply cannot ramp up enough to replace fossil fuel electricity AND decarbonize our transportation.
This all said, a fair amount of what Kunstler worries about in the Long Emergency would be true without peak oil, and without climate change doing exactly what it is doing.
And he was spot-on, sadly, in warning we were “overdue” for an influenza pandemic.
So, with hindsight, and knowing already a decade ago, or five years after the book, that Kunstler had a high level of alarmism even by my standards? Three stars.
But, given global oil production is up more than 15 percent since then, contra fanbois of his claiming otherwise, we've not hit Peak Oil. Period and end of story.
The two swing states of Saudi Arabia and Russia certainly haven’t peaked, even if fields in European Russia (and Azerbaijan), West Siberia, and Ghawar are all deteriorating. And, one must wonder how true the claims of Matthew Simmons et al 15 years ago actually were. (That doesn't mean we should believe every word of Daniel Yergin, either.)
Other aspects appear dated. One is that lithium batteries have become feasible for hybrids (and nickel hydride has been used too, and still is). And, that means that battery storage technology for solar and wind becomes more feasible. That undercuts oh, about one-third of his pessimism about renewables.
That said, the non-peak of world oil means climate change becomes more problematic. And, in a “bootstrapping,” climate change opens more Arctic lands to oil exploration.
Even if the US has certainly already hit a peak in profitably produced oil, and in all likelihood, a peak in oil produced at any price, all of the factors above indicate that oil addiction isn’t going away.
That said, Kunstler was right about several things.
One is that renewable electric energy simply cannot ramp up enough to replace fossil fuel electricity AND decarbonize our transportation.
This all said, a fair amount of what Kunstler worries about in the Long Emergency would be true without peak oil, and without climate change doing exactly what it is doing.
And he was spot-on, sadly, in warning we were “overdue” for an influenza pandemic.
So, with hindsight, and knowing already a decade ago, or five years after the book, that Kunstler had a high level of alarmism even by my standards? Three stars.
kittarlin's review against another edition
3.0
Scathing and scary. Not much here for individual survival, as the author seems primarily interested in the survival of the "project of human civilization". But lots of good info on Peak Oil, including a history of oil and steady reminders of how thoroughly oil has become part of the daily fabric of American life. It's not just what we feed our cars, it's how we heat our homes and grow our food. It's an ingredient in or part of the manufacturing process for darn near everything. America has built it's current living arrangements around cheap, abundant oil... and doesn't seem to show any signs of changing it's tune. Whether the author's timeline of a Long Emergency being well underway by 2025 is accurate or not, it's likely that no one in a position to do something on a national scale will be successful in a timely enough fashion to stave off all the catastrophes coming with the end of the Cheap Oil Age and the onset of Climate Change, whenever they arrive.
apiersonsmela's review against another edition
informative
slow-paced
1.75
The Long Emergency is a look into the impending collapse of the American oil economy, focusing on the societal effects of the end of the age of cheap energy. While many of the criticisms of suburban America and consumer culture are sharp and driven, the author’s own limited view, at times informed by classist, imperialist and racist thinking, serves as a damper in truly imagining an alternative future.
alexctelander's review against another edition
3.0
THE LONG EMERGENCY: SURVIVING THE CONVERGING CATASTROPHES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY BY JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER: The Long Emergency is an eye-catching book with hits bright alarm-yellow cover and black and red title. It's a book about the future of the world, what's going to happen when we run out of oil, and what to do when this "Long Emergency" begins. The first part of the book goes into depth about when oil was discovered, how it was first used, when and how it was converted into the many products that use oil today. The reader learns what are the events that led up to the discovery of oil in the Middle East and the reason it is in its horrible state today.
After this enlightening history lesson, Kunstler goes on to explain that there is a specific oil production peak that will be reached, when half of the available oil would've been used up, and the other half -- which is harder to get -- will drive up gas and oil prices. According to a number of sources in the footnotes, this peak will be reached some time between the year 2000 and 2008. Kunstler says that they way we will be able to tell is through the oscillation of oil prices rising greatly, then dropping a little, then raising more, but only going down a little each time. Over the past year, this is exactly what has happened, and I'm pretty sure we're never going to see gas go below $2 again.
Kunstler goes on to point out that the supposed alternative forms of energy we're working on will be nowhere near to replacing the oil industry once we dispense with it. This is mainly due to the recent Republican Presidents, starting with Reagan who stopped most funding to alternative energy means and essentially killed the drive for it. Along with Bush Senior and our current idiot, they are all part of a white male arrogant group that believe we will never run out of oil, and it is merely a case of finding it in the earth, albeit by digging deeper and further (re: Alaska!); couple with this is these men's beliefs that the Rapture will arrive tomorrow and they'll be ascending to Heaven, leaving all their problems behind them. Though Clinton is also to blame for looking towards the future and working on prepare the civilized world for the inevitable.
Kunstler predicts all out pandemonium and chaos, worst felt in the United States, of course, where suburbia is in full force. When all the material goods and services we've taken for granted for so long collapse, and our society crashes around us, the Long Emergency will being. This is what Kunstler says. Though he provides little advice and assurance in how one can survive this event. Plus there's the fact that this nonfiction work doesn't have an index or bibliography at the end. I know all nonfiction works don't need this, but when it's a book predicting everything going to hell in my lifetime, I would at least like a list for further readings, or maybe some websites.
It will at least be interesting the see in the coming decades what will begin happening, and I know for now what I most want to get is a hybrid, because gas prices aren't going down ever again.
If you liked this review, and would like to read more, go to BookBanter.
After this enlightening history lesson, Kunstler goes on to explain that there is a specific oil production peak that will be reached, when half of the available oil would've been used up, and the other half -- which is harder to get -- will drive up gas and oil prices. According to a number of sources in the footnotes, this peak will be reached some time between the year 2000 and 2008. Kunstler says that they way we will be able to tell is through the oscillation of oil prices rising greatly, then dropping a little, then raising more, but only going down a little each time. Over the past year, this is exactly what has happened, and I'm pretty sure we're never going to see gas go below $2 again.
Kunstler goes on to point out that the supposed alternative forms of energy we're working on will be nowhere near to replacing the oil industry once we dispense with it. This is mainly due to the recent Republican Presidents, starting with Reagan who stopped most funding to alternative energy means and essentially killed the drive for it. Along with Bush Senior and our current idiot, they are all part of a white male arrogant group that believe we will never run out of oil, and it is merely a case of finding it in the earth, albeit by digging deeper and further (re: Alaska!); couple with this is these men's beliefs that the Rapture will arrive tomorrow and they'll be ascending to Heaven, leaving all their problems behind them. Though Clinton is also to blame for looking towards the future and working on prepare the civilized world for the inevitable.
Kunstler predicts all out pandemonium and chaos, worst felt in the United States, of course, where suburbia is in full force. When all the material goods and services we've taken for granted for so long collapse, and our society crashes around us, the Long Emergency will being. This is what Kunstler says. Though he provides little advice and assurance in how one can survive this event. Plus there's the fact that this nonfiction work doesn't have an index or bibliography at the end. I know all nonfiction works don't need this, but when it's a book predicting everything going to hell in my lifetime, I would at least like a list for further readings, or maybe some websites.
It will at least be interesting the see in the coming decades what will begin happening, and I know for now what I most want to get is a hybrid, because gas prices aren't going down ever again.
If you liked this review, and would like to read more, go to BookBanter.
brandur's review against another edition
2.0
A thought-inspiring book about the end of the oil age, and what comes after. Talks a lot about how we owe most of our modern feats to cheap oil. Unfortunately, the inaccuracy of some important facts and figures (often numbers are off by orders of magnitude) damages the point that the book tries to make. Most of these figures are due to the book being published years ago, but some are not.
amyrhoda's review against another edition
4.0
I've read Stephen King, I've read Dean Koontz, I've read Clive Barker, Lovecraft, Poe. I have read some scary shit, but this is the scariest book I have ever read. It's about all the bad stuff which is coming down the pipe: the inevitable flu pandemic, climate change, and the end of the fossil fuelled economy. Basically he says, if we get through all this without blowing ourselves up or dying of thirst, we will be back in a pre-industrial-type society (he doesn't think much of the alternative fuel options), along with a vastly curtailed population. He thinks cities are doomed, he hates suburbs with a vigor unrivalled since my office mate Rajko, and he thinks towns and small cities are where it's at. He also thinks you should work on a post-industrial trade. He plans to publish a newsletter.
The guy is deadly serious. I have to find out if he's a kook or not. The book has no bibliography or index, which is certainly a bad sign. On the other hand it's clear to me that our society relies on fossil fuels to an alarming and unneccessary extent. Do we really need mangoes in February? Holidays in Hawai'i? Hot showers every day? Well, maybe that last one.
The fact that the oil reserves and other fossil fuels are running out sheds an interesting light on the issue of global warming. We're going to use all the available fossil fuels sooner or later. Does it make any difference if we use them up in fifty years or two hundred? The process of climate change is so slow and gradual and complex that I don't think it would make a difference, although as always I could be wrong.
Bottom line, this was a thought-provoking and easy (and scary) read. Kunstler is a cranky old man -- he hates the suburbs and he has some rude things to say about Southerners -- and it's always fun to hang out with the cranky, for a little while at least.
The guy is deadly serious. I have to find out if he's a kook or not. The book has no bibliography or index, which is certainly a bad sign. On the other hand it's clear to me that our society relies on fossil fuels to an alarming and unneccessary extent. Do we really need mangoes in February? Holidays in Hawai'i? Hot showers every day? Well, maybe that last one.
The fact that the oil reserves and other fossil fuels are running out sheds an interesting light on the issue of global warming. We're going to use all the available fossil fuels sooner or later. Does it make any difference if we use them up in fifty years or two hundred? The process of climate change is so slow and gradual and complex that I don't think it would make a difference, although as always I could be wrong.
Bottom line, this was a thought-provoking and easy (and scary) read. Kunstler is a cranky old man -- he hates the suburbs and he has some rude things to say about Southerners -- and it's always fun to hang out with the cranky, for a little while at least.
daeseage's review
Could not get past the very dated, racist view of politics in the Middle East. Stopped about 1/4 of the way through. The oil reserves info was interesting, though.
jady's review
4.0
Very sobering. And alarming, and thought-provoking, and inspiring, and exceptionally readable. I especially liked the way he put his analysis (which, I'm sad to say, is very likely correct) into cultural and historical perspective.
Even though it was written a few years ago, it's still highly relevant to today, and some of his predictions already seem to be coming true. I definitely would recommend this book - this is the wake-up call consumerist society needs!
Even though it was written a few years ago, it's still highly relevant to today, and some of his predictions already seem to be coming true. I definitely would recommend this book - this is the wake-up call consumerist society needs!
wacosinker's review
3.0
The party could end this badly. It depends on variables Kunstler does not see as variables, such as timely energy substitutes and market stability during primary energy transition. The book should temper blind optimism.
alexctelander's review
3.0
THE LONG EMERGENCY: SURVIVING THE CONVERGING CATASTROPHES OF THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY BY JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER: The Long Emergency is an eye-catching book with hits bright alarm-yellow cover and black and red title. It's a book about the future of the world, what's going to happen when we run out of oil, and what to do when this "Long Emergency" begins. The first part of the book goes into depth about when oil was discovered, how it was first used, when and how it was converted into the many products that use oil today. The reader learns what are the events that led up to the discovery of oil in the Middle East and the reason it is in its horrible state today.
After this enlightening history lesson, Kunstler goes on to explain that there is a specific oil production peak that will be reached, when half of the available oil would've been used up, and the other half -- which is harder to get -- will drive up gas and oil prices. According to a number of sources in the footnotes, this peak will be reached some time between the year 2000 and 2008. Kunstler says that they way we will be able to tell is through the oscillation of oil prices rising greatly, then dropping a little, then raising more, but only going down a little each time. Over the past year, this is exactly what has happened, and I'm pretty sure we're never going to see gas go below $2 again.
Kunstler goes on to point out that the supposed alternative forms of energy we're working on will be nowhere near to replacing the oil industry once we dispense with it. This is mainly due to the recent Republican Presidents, starting with Reagan who stopped most funding to alternative energy means and essentially killed the drive for it. Along with Bush Senior and our current idiot, they are all part of a white male arrogant group that believe we will never run out of oil, and it is merely a case of finding it in the earth, albeit by digging deeper and further (re: Alaska!); couple with this is these men's beliefs that the Rapture will arrive tomorrow and they'll be ascending to Heaven, leaving all their problems behind them. Though Clinton is also to blame for looking towards the future and working on prepare the civilized world for the inevitable.
Kunstler predicts all out pandemonium and chaos, worst felt in the United States, of course, where suburbia is in full force. When all the material goods and services we've taken for granted for so long collapse, and our society crashes around us, the Long Emergency will being. This is what Kunstler says. Though he provides little advice and assurance in how one can survive this event. Plus there's the fact that this nonfiction work doesn't have an index or bibliography at the end. I know all nonfiction works don't need this, but when it's a book predicting everything going to hell in my lifetime, I would at least like a list for further readings, or maybe some websites.
It will at least be interesting the see in the coming decades what will begin happening, and I know for now what I most want to get is a hybrid, because gas prices aren't going down ever again.
If you liked this review, and would like to read more, go to BookBanter.
After this enlightening history lesson, Kunstler goes on to explain that there is a specific oil production peak that will be reached, when half of the available oil would've been used up, and the other half -- which is harder to get -- will drive up gas and oil prices. According to a number of sources in the footnotes, this peak will be reached some time between the year 2000 and 2008. Kunstler says that they way we will be able to tell is through the oscillation of oil prices rising greatly, then dropping a little, then raising more, but only going down a little each time. Over the past year, this is exactly what has happened, and I'm pretty sure we're never going to see gas go below $2 again.
Kunstler goes on to point out that the supposed alternative forms of energy we're working on will be nowhere near to replacing the oil industry once we dispense with it. This is mainly due to the recent Republican Presidents, starting with Reagan who stopped most funding to alternative energy means and essentially killed the drive for it. Along with Bush Senior and our current idiot, they are all part of a white male arrogant group that believe we will never run out of oil, and it is merely a case of finding it in the earth, albeit by digging deeper and further (re: Alaska!); couple with this is these men's beliefs that the Rapture will arrive tomorrow and they'll be ascending to Heaven, leaving all their problems behind them. Though Clinton is also to blame for looking towards the future and working on prepare the civilized world for the inevitable.
Kunstler predicts all out pandemonium and chaos, worst felt in the United States, of course, where suburbia is in full force. When all the material goods and services we've taken for granted for so long collapse, and our society crashes around us, the Long Emergency will being. This is what Kunstler says. Though he provides little advice and assurance in how one can survive this event. Plus there's the fact that this nonfiction work doesn't have an index or bibliography at the end. I know all nonfiction works don't need this, but when it's a book predicting everything going to hell in my lifetime, I would at least like a list for further readings, or maybe some websites.
It will at least be interesting the see in the coming decades what will begin happening, and I know for now what I most want to get is a hybrid, because gas prices aren't going down ever again.
If you liked this review, and would like to read more, go to BookBanter.