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rebelswin's review
I skimmed parts and read others more in-depth. There are a lot of interesting ideas presented here pertaining to the causes of the American Civil War and civil strife in general which are thought provoking in these (2020) times. The third explanation of history, that it isn't Great Men or Ideas/Innovation that drive change but a series of inexorable cycles, bears consideration. But really, a cover-to-cover reading is only requisite for someone really needing to engage fully and professionally with this book, and that is not me. I came away with plenty to chew over and I am happy with that.
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betsychadwell's review
3.0
[July 25, 2018]
This book uses statistics and demographics to analyze historical trends. Basically he contends that most human history follows a pattern of a period of rising amity followed by a period of rising conflict that likely results in a major war, and that those patterns are fairly regular and even predictable. The whole cycle lasts around 150-200 years, though there are more frequent 50-year spikes of unrest and retrenchment. He posits that we are currently in a period of rising conflict comparable to that which preceded the American Civil War, and he provides detailed statistical evidence for that claim.
I am not a student of statistics or mathematics, so his detailed discussions of statistical methods and formulas often lost me, but I was still able to generally follow his theory. Maybe he sometimes seemed to pick and choose among the factors that he tracked, but often he had no choice. He did not always have available the data from historical periods that he had for the current era. Even so, it was a fairly compelling, even frightening, analysis.
I recommend this book to anyone interested in history or just in the current political situation. If we recognize what is happening, and why, maybe we will have more success at preventing the next major conflict.
This book uses statistics and demographics to analyze historical trends. Basically he contends that most human history follows a pattern of a period of rising amity followed by a period of rising conflict that likely results in a major war, and that those patterns are fairly regular and even predictable. The whole cycle lasts around 150-200 years, though there are more frequent 50-year spikes of unrest and retrenchment. He posits that we are currently in a period of rising conflict comparable to that which preceded the American Civil War, and he provides detailed statistical evidence for that claim.
I am not a student of statistics or mathematics, so his detailed discussions of statistical methods and formulas often lost me, but I was still able to generally follow his theory. Maybe he sometimes seemed to pick and choose among the factors that he tracked, but often he had no choice. He did not always have available the data from historical periods that he had for the current era. Even so, it was a fairly compelling, even frightening, analysis.
I recommend this book to anyone interested in history or just in the current political situation. If we recognize what is happening, and why, maybe we will have more success at preventing the next major conflict.
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