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simmoril's review against another edition
3.0
Game theory has always been a fascinating subject for me, and Bueno de Mesquita's book helped introduce to me the ways in which he's taken that idea to the next level. By gathering information from various sources and running carefully modeled computer simulations, Bueno de Mesquita shows that the correct 'move' in a situation is not always the obvious one, and in some cases, the seemingly right move is doomed to failure.
I really enjoyed reading his deep analysis of different situations, such as the cold war, the Middle East conflict, and global warming. The history and background that Bueno de Mesquita provided on these situations made for good reading and provided me with future ideas for reading projects.
My only real gripe with the book is that it was fairly light on the details of Bueno de Mesqiuta's techniques: what the models are, how they work, etc. It would have been nice if he could've provided a 'Further reading' section to point the reader at resources where he/she could learn more about the technical details of his work.
I really enjoyed reading his deep analysis of different situations, such as the cold war, the Middle East conflict, and global warming. The history and background that Bueno de Mesquita provided on these situations made for good reading and provided me with future ideas for reading projects.
My only real gripe with the book is that it was fairly light on the details of Bueno de Mesqiuta's techniques: what the models are, how they work, etc. It would have been nice if he could've provided a 'Further reading' section to point the reader at resources where he/she could learn more about the technical details of his work.
monk888's review
4.0
Solid intro to the application of game theory principles to real world political decision making, with illustrations drawn from Bueno de Mesquita's work in the field.
davidr's review
5.0
Truly a fascinating book! De Mesquita has used the game theory of John Nash to develop a series of models that help him to predict future events. The predictions are not simply binary (yes/no) prognostications--they are in-depth analyses that describe what will happen, and why. The author claims a 90% success rate. The last few chapters include a set of detailed predictions made by HIS STUDENTS using his models. Some of the predictions (most notably, Pakistan) are starting to come to pass, now. Others will be proven--or disproven--within the near future. Of course, this book is sort of an advertisement for the author's consulting company. Nevertheless, I've been recommending this book to everybody.
ivybeans's review
3.0
I liked this book. After I finished the book, I tried to replicate some of the results using computer programs and found it not quite as easy as BDM suggests.
angelakay's review
5.0
I've been meaning to read this book since it came out in 2009 (I think?) & couldn't have enjoyed it more. In it, political scientist Bruce Bueno De Mesquita discusses how he's spent the last thirty-some-odd years harnessing the power of math & logic (in the form of game theory) to make spookily accurate predictions about business, politics, legal battles, & all kinds of other situations that involve human beings negotiating and scheming for the best outcome possible. Even more impressive, these aren't fields in which he has any particular expertise or access to privileged information--as he reminds us over and over and over again, humans who want things are predictable, which means their behavior can be modeled mathematically. Once you know just a few things about all the major players (level of influence, desired outcome, how much credit they want, how committed to/flexible they are regarding their desired outcome, & whether they have veto power in the situation), it's just a matter of quantifying those things, feeding the values into the model, & interpreting the results.
Impossible, you say? That must be why Bueno De Mesquita's predictions have had something like a 90% success rate over the course of his career.
I also enjoyed the part where BDM engaged in a bit of retroactive predictioneering--ie, using only his prediction model & information widely available at the time to show that both the Cold War & its resolution were basically preordained at the end of World War II, that Britain likely could've prevented WWI, and Sparta might have survived but for its addiction to horse racing. It was also neat to see that predictions he & his students made in the last chapter using the model (the failure of the Copenhagen Conference to do anything about global warming, & the US upping aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion being enough to get them to stop making side deals with the Taliban Al Qaeda, but not to squash them completely) have come to pass since the book was written in '09.
Brilliant. If you want a friendly, interesting, not-too-technical introduction to game theory (and also how to save hundreds or thousands when buying a car), this book is for you.
Impossible, you say? That must be why Bueno De Mesquita's predictions have had something like a 90% success rate over the course of his career.
I also enjoyed the part where BDM engaged in a bit of retroactive predictioneering--ie, using only his prediction model & information widely available at the time to show that both the Cold War & its resolution were basically preordained at the end of World War II, that Britain likely could've prevented WWI, and Sparta might have survived but for its addiction to horse racing. It was also neat to see that predictions he & his students made in the last chapter using the model (the failure of the Copenhagen Conference to do anything about global warming, & the US upping aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion being enough to get them to stop making side deals with the Taliban Al Qaeda, but not to squash them completely) have come to pass since the book was written in '09.
Brilliant. If you want a friendly, interesting, not-too-technical introduction to game theory (and also how to save hundreds or thousands when buying a car), this book is for you.
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