A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes

484 pages first pub 1921 (editions)

nonfiction economics mathematics philosophy challenging informative medium-paced
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There is, first of all, the distinction between that part of our belief which is rational and that part which is not. If a man believes something for a reason which is preposterous or for no reason at all, and what he believes turns out to be true...

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