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A review by branch_c
Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future by Martin Ford
challenging
informative
medium-paced
4.0
I’d likely have been even more impressed if I’d read this book in 2015. But in fact I only heard about Ford’s thesis when Andrew Yang popularized it as part of his campaign for president in 2020. Yang says he was heavily influenced by this book, and it shows. The arguments were convincing when Yang made them, and they are here as well - Ford even makes a succinct and evidence-based case for UBI (p. 257 - 273).
It might be questioned whether the predictions made here have actually come true in the time since the book was written. But to be honest, I think Ford’s concern is in the longer term, and his tone less alarmist than the title of the book suggests. Yes, now is the time to start thinking about these issues, but the challenge will be in “the coming decades” (p. 281), not necessarily immediately.
For example, while Yang made a big deal about the likelihood that self-driving vehicles would put truck drivers out of work, Ford was less sure, stating his belief that “…progress is likely to be far more measured. While the trucks may indeed soon be able to essentially drive themselves, the staggering destructive potential of these vehicles probably means that someone is going to remain in the driver’s seat for the foreseeable future.” (p. 190). And indeed so far Ford’s prediction has been more accurate.
But the overall point seems clear. As automation technology improves, companies will be incentivized to invest in it as opposed to in human employees where possible. Why wouldn’t they? And we should welcome that, even if - especially if - it means a transition to a “jobless future”, because humans have better things to do with their time than to work. However, some political and social restructuring will obviously be necessary in order for all of humanity to take advantage of this transition rather than becoming the victims of it.
Anyway, I can definitely recommend this book, still relevant nine years later.
It might be questioned whether the predictions made here have actually come true in the time since the book was written. But to be honest, I think Ford’s concern is in the longer term, and his tone less alarmist than the title of the book suggests. Yes, now is the time to start thinking about these issues, but the challenge will be in “the coming decades” (p. 281), not necessarily immediately.
For example, while Yang made a big deal about the likelihood that self-driving vehicles would put truck drivers out of work, Ford was less sure, stating his belief that “…progress is likely to be far more measured. While the trucks may indeed soon be able to essentially drive themselves, the staggering destructive potential of these vehicles probably means that someone is going to remain in the driver’s seat for the foreseeable future.” (p. 190). And indeed so far Ford’s prediction has been more accurate.
But the overall point seems clear. As automation technology improves, companies will be incentivized to invest in it as opposed to in human employees where possible. Why wouldn’t they? And we should welcome that, even if - especially if - it means a transition to a “jobless future”, because humans have better things to do with their time than to work. However, some political and social restructuring will obviously be necessary in order for all of humanity to take advantage of this transition rather than becoming the victims of it.
Anyway, I can definitely recommend this book, still relevant nine years later.