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A review by jmmcand
The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan
1.0
First time I have given a 1-star review. I do so cautiously recognizing the author is more educated, smarter, and has a lot more experience than me. Also, many other smart people gave the book great reviews. Let me summarize my rationale.
Overall, the book indicates a global collapse due to de-population and other geopolitical considerations; primarily size and strength of a country's Navy. The USA will be spared for the most part as we are independent in most areas and certainly have the strongest Navy. Here's why I don't buy into this message:
1. It's a highly pessimistic book using the phrase "de-civilization" quite often. I have never been accused of being overly optimistic, but I think a reader should approach this book with skepticism simply because the overall message is so doomsdayish. I remember reading about overpopulation and how we couldn't feed the world...now I am supposed to believe doomsday because of de-population?
2. The author must have well over 1000 detailed predictions! ...do you trust anyone who says they can predict the future with that much clarity? Not me. Some of the predictions will come true and many more to varying degrees; but if you swing the bat a thousand times, you will get some hits. The book goes far deeper than just high-level trends, but states what will happen to specific countries for specific topics (manufacturing, agriculture, etc.). Nobody has a crystal ball.
3. Where are all the solutions? The author implies he has thought through extensively all possible solutions to every problem. I don't buy it. There are a lot of smart, creative people around the world. Put a hundred experts on any area discussed in the book (energy, military, etc.) and we will probably get a lot of solutions the author never even considered.
4. This book is very different than the many other books I have read predicting the future. Books describing a single topic can often be on track; even if the timing or variations exist from the original prediction. Authors like Michio Kaku, Ray Dalio, Yuval Noah Harari offer more of a nuanced view of the future and are less arrogant with their predictions.
In summary, I believe the author is in the "can't see the forest through the trees" place. He probably also has a publisher wanting a doomsday scenario rather than a more timid and reasonable guess at the future.
That's my two cents.
Overall, the book indicates a global collapse due to de-population and other geopolitical considerations; primarily size and strength of a country's Navy. The USA will be spared for the most part as we are independent in most areas and certainly have the strongest Navy. Here's why I don't buy into this message:
1. It's a highly pessimistic book using the phrase "de-civilization" quite often. I have never been accused of being overly optimistic, but I think a reader should approach this book with skepticism simply because the overall message is so doomsdayish. I remember reading about overpopulation and how we couldn't feed the world...now I am supposed to believe doomsday because of de-population?
2. The author must have well over 1000 detailed predictions! ...do you trust anyone who says they can predict the future with that much clarity? Not me. Some of the predictions will come true and many more to varying degrees; but if you swing the bat a thousand times, you will get some hits. The book goes far deeper than just high-level trends, but states what will happen to specific countries for specific topics (manufacturing, agriculture, etc.). Nobody has a crystal ball.
3. Where are all the solutions? The author implies he has thought through extensively all possible solutions to every problem. I don't buy it. There are a lot of smart, creative people around the world. Put a hundred experts on any area discussed in the book (energy, military, etc.) and we will probably get a lot of solutions the author never even considered.
4. This book is very different than the many other books I have read predicting the future. Books describing a single topic can often be on track; even if the timing or variations exist from the original prediction. Authors like Michio Kaku, Ray Dalio, Yuval Noah Harari offer more of a nuanced view of the future and are less arrogant with their predictions.
In summary, I believe the author is in the "can't see the forest through the trees" place. He probably also has a publisher wanting a doomsday scenario rather than a more timid and reasonable guess at the future.
That's my two cents.