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A review by jshepard
War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires by Peter Turchin
5.0
I finally decided to award 5 stars. Really intriguing book. First, he references so many books I love e.g. Asimov's Foundation, Plagues and Peoples, A Distant Mirror as well as other intriguing books e.g. Guns Germs and Steel, Robert Putnam's books and D.G Fischer's Long Wave. He references many leaders of complexity science also e.g. S Strogatz and others. So, I am predisposed to Turchin's conjectures as we are on a very similar wavelength.
I find it interesting that we in the West typically view time as a linear progression (and as Americans we have historically (maybe not today, however!) view the progression as ascending while so many Russians view time as a cycle that never really progresses (Kondratieff waves, Tim Snyder's work and one of my favorite books - the strange life of Ivan Osokin. Appropriately, Turchin's major thesis proposes that the rise and fall of empires is largely determined by three interlocking cycles. While there are many variables that make precise predictions impossible, the cycles follow somewhat predictable timelines: a rise and fall of Asabiya (ie similar to Putnam's concept of social capital) of 1000 years, a secular cycle of 200 to 300 years and a 2 to 3 generation cycle of 40 to 60 years.
The longest cycle of 1000 years is a result of the rise and fall of Asabiya, an Arab concept denoting 'ability to engage in collective action'. This rises from society coming together to fight some existential risk - typically war with an enemy. Over time, as the risk decreases, there is less social cohesion, internal tension and a rise in the production of 'elites' who increasing are unable to find employment. These under or unemployed disaffected elites sow dissent among the hoi polloi, making the empire vulnerable to attack ... and the cycle repeats.
His evidence is a fascinating analysis of Europe (including Russia) from Rome through the enlightenment.
A problem with his thesis for me, however, is that much of it seems a "just so" story that is untestable. His timeline and explanatory variables are so flexible they can fit almost any historical arc.
Still, it is a very fun read and feels truthy. Turchin has recently gained popularity. This book was written in 2006 and now seems quite prescient. It is easy to use his theory as an explanation of the rise of Trump, populism, partisanship and anti-democratic furvor. So, recommended.
I find it interesting that we in the West typically view time as a linear progression (and as Americans we have historically (maybe not today, however!) view the progression as ascending while so many Russians view time as a cycle that never really progresses (Kondratieff waves, Tim Snyder's work and one of my favorite books - the strange life of Ivan Osokin. Appropriately, Turchin's major thesis proposes that the rise and fall of empires is largely determined by three interlocking cycles. While there are many variables that make precise predictions impossible, the cycles follow somewhat predictable timelines: a rise and fall of Asabiya (ie similar to Putnam's concept of social capital) of 1000 years, a secular cycle of 200 to 300 years and a 2 to 3 generation cycle of 40 to 60 years.
The longest cycle of 1000 years is a result of the rise and fall of Asabiya, an Arab concept denoting 'ability to engage in collective action'. This rises from society coming together to fight some existential risk - typically war with an enemy. Over time, as the risk decreases, there is less social cohesion, internal tension and a rise in the production of 'elites' who increasing are unable to find employment. These under or unemployed disaffected elites sow dissent among the hoi polloi, making the empire vulnerable to attack ... and the cycle repeats.
His evidence is a fascinating analysis of Europe (including Russia) from Rome through the enlightenment.
A problem with his thesis for me, however, is that much of it seems a "just so" story that is untestable. His timeline and explanatory variables are so flexible they can fit almost any historical arc.
Still, it is a very fun read and feels truthy. Turchin has recently gained popularity. This book was written in 2006 and now seems quite prescient. It is easy to use his theory as an explanation of the rise of Trump, populism, partisanship and anti-democratic furvor. So, recommended.