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A review by reinhardt
The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America by Peter Zeihan
4.0
Some fantastic information on shale production. Details on how its found, drilled, extracted. The huge surge in shale production is close to miraculous. And the natural gas spin-off is a boon for US electricity production. By natural gas replacing coal in electricity generation, shale production has done much more to reduce greenhouse gases than all the wind and solar installations. Regardless of the Green Hype, oil is not going anywhere for a long time.
The book also highlights the absolutely critical nature of oil and the associated natural gas. It has started wars in the past and Peter Zeihan predicts future wars triggered by oil. Oil is more important than food. Without oil, no food is harvested or transported to hungry people. And of course, without oil, militaries are relegated to civil war status with horses and buggy. Oil is the single most important commodity in the globe.
Interlinked with shale oil is America's place as the worlds de facto policeman. The current global status is Pax Americana. It is US military presence that keeps global trade lines open. With US becoming energy independent, Americans will become less and less willing to pay for global security. Of course, Americans benefit from global security, but as the US is much less dependent on export to drive its economy, safe passage on oceans is a lower priority than it is for major exporting counties like China.
Once the US pulls back from securing the world's oceans, Zeihan predicts wars are inevitable in Asia and Russia. He plays our extensive scenarios on how these would play out. Almost certainly, they won't play out in that way, but it's a useful exercise to game out a plausible outline.
Particularly with Russia, it seems clear they want to extend their sphere of influence to Ukraine, Byelorussia and the Baltics. The author suggests this will trigger the Europeans to go to war with the Russians. I find that hard to believe. European armies are woefully inept and the populations are so averse to military action they make Chamberlain look like a crazed warmonger. It seems more likey the Germans will acquiesce to whatever the Russians demand.
The book also highlights the unique geographical advantages of the US. Abundant fertile land, navigable rivers, huge ocean buffers that provide impenetrable barriers against military invasion, and of course huge oil deposits. Demographics are another factor. US has better demographics that the Chinese, Japanese or Eurpoean. They factor will maintain the US hegemonic postion.
All these factors contribute to America's inward turn. If Peter is right that no matter the politics of the White House, Americans will withdraw from the world (as it has before), then the current global Pax American will fade into regional conflicts with the biggest losers being China and Africa.
Another factor this book highlights the abundant cash the Saudi's are sitting on. They can last decades with deficits to subside their populus and undermining Iran - their arch enemy. This book helps explain some of the recent Saudi muscle-flexing, against enemies foreign and domestic. And the Saudi price war is targetted more at the Iranians than anyone else.
Overall, a lot of great information in this book, but its a bit too long and too long on hypothetical. I think a better focus would have been on the history, which is inevitably repeated.
The book also highlights the absolutely critical nature of oil and the associated natural gas. It has started wars in the past and Peter Zeihan predicts future wars triggered by oil. Oil is more important than food. Without oil, no food is harvested or transported to hungry people. And of course, without oil, militaries are relegated to civil war status with horses and buggy. Oil is the single most important commodity in the globe.
Interlinked with shale oil is America's place as the worlds de facto policeman. The current global status is Pax Americana. It is US military presence that keeps global trade lines open. With US becoming energy independent, Americans will become less and less willing to pay for global security. Of course, Americans benefit from global security, but as the US is much less dependent on export to drive its economy, safe passage on oceans is a lower priority than it is for major exporting counties like China.
Once the US pulls back from securing the world's oceans, Zeihan predicts wars are inevitable in Asia and Russia. He plays our extensive scenarios on how these would play out. Almost certainly, they won't play out in that way, but it's a useful exercise to game out a plausible outline.
Particularly with Russia, it seems clear they want to extend their sphere of influence to Ukraine, Byelorussia and the Baltics. The author suggests this will trigger the Europeans to go to war with the Russians. I find that hard to believe. European armies are woefully inept and the populations are so averse to military action they make Chamberlain look like a crazed warmonger. It seems more likey the Germans will acquiesce to whatever the Russians demand.
The book also highlights the unique geographical advantages of the US. Abundant fertile land, navigable rivers, huge ocean buffers that provide impenetrable barriers against military invasion, and of course huge oil deposits. Demographics are another factor. US has better demographics that the Chinese, Japanese or Eurpoean. They factor will maintain the US hegemonic postion.
All these factors contribute to America's inward turn. If Peter is right that no matter the politics of the White House, Americans will withdraw from the world (as it has before), then the current global Pax American will fade into regional conflicts with the biggest losers being China and Africa.
Another factor this book highlights the abundant cash the Saudi's are sitting on. They can last decades with deficits to subside their populus and undermining Iran - their arch enemy. This book helps explain some of the recent Saudi muscle-flexing, against enemies foreign and domestic. And the Saudi price war is targetted more at the Iranians than anyone else.
Overall, a lot of great information in this book, but its a bit too long and too long on hypothetical. I think a better focus would have been on the history, which is inevitably repeated.