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junypaganmd's review
5.0
Este libro me ha llevado a un lugar donde la ciencia y las matemáticas se entrelazan con la historia, donde Turchin se convierte en un narrador magistral, tejiendo una historia fascinante que abarca los siglos y desentraña los patrones ocultos de los acontecimientos estadounidenses.
El enfoque científico adoptado por Turchin en su obra es impresionante, y al sumergirme en sus páginas me cautivó la claridad y precisión de su modelo. Su capacidad para predecir acontecimientos que se han producido en Estados Unidos en los últimos años (especialmente desde 2020), y que es muy probable que continúen produciéndose, es un testimonio de su capacidad analítica y de su profundo conocimiento de la historia humana.
Turchin no solo nos revela por qué Estados Unidos se ha enfrentado y se enfrenta a turbulencias, sino que también nos ofrece un espejo en el que podemos contemplar nuestros propios rostros. Este espejo —esta obra— nos hace meditar sobre el papel que desempeñamos en la perpetuación de los ciclos seculares.
Con este libro me declaro seguidor de Turchin, y siento que mi perspectiva sobre la historia y la naturaleza humana se ha enriquecido enormemente. Ages of Discord es una obra que recomendaría encarecidamente a quienes busquen una comprensión profunda de los patrones que subyacen a los tumultuosos acontecimientos de muchas de nuestras sociedades, así como una visión sugerente de cómo podríamos, aunque con gran dificultad, alterar estos ciclos para forjar un futuro más prometedor.
El enfoque científico adoptado por Turchin en su obra es impresionante, y al sumergirme en sus páginas me cautivó la claridad y precisión de su modelo. Su capacidad para predecir acontecimientos que se han producido en Estados Unidos en los últimos años (especialmente desde 2020), y que es muy probable que continúen produciéndose, es un testimonio de su capacidad analítica y de su profundo conocimiento de la historia humana.
Turchin no solo nos revela por qué Estados Unidos se ha enfrentado y se enfrenta a turbulencias, sino que también nos ofrece un espejo en el que podemos contemplar nuestros propios rostros. Este espejo —esta obra— nos hace meditar sobre el papel que desempeñamos en la perpetuación de los ciclos seculares.
Con este libro me declaro seguidor de Turchin, y siento que mi perspectiva sobre la historia y la naturaleza humana se ha enriquecido enormemente. Ages of Discord es una obra que recomendaría encarecidamente a quienes busquen una comprensión profunda de los patrones que subyacen a los tumultuosos acontecimientos de muchas de nuestras sociedades, así como una visión sugerente de cómo podríamos, aunque con gran dificultad, alterar estos ciclos para forjar un futuro más prometedor.
thejdizzler's review
5.0
Very mathematical book about drivers of political instability. Turchin's theory is that elite overproduction leads to wage depression among the elite class and discord as spurned elite aspirants harness other societal problems to gain power. He explores this through American history by charting us through the first secular cycle (1770-1920 ish).
I was super impressed by the math, especially since the model was not trained on data used in the book. However I did have some questions about making the exact dates fit/would have liked some elaboration on the point about population growth affecting the length of each cycle.
I was super impressed by the math, especially since the model was not trained on data used in the book. However I did have some questions about making the exact dates fit/would have liked some elaboration on the point about population growth affecting the length of each cycle.
lukescalone's review
2.0
Not so keen on this one. It has a logic to it, but--as a historian--I'm incredibly skeptical of cliometrics. I'm thankful that Turchin doesn't presume to predict the future with them, but instead uses them as an interpretive tool. That said, his choice to look at real wages, overproduction of elites, and state finances make a lot of sense as predictors of instability. Here's how defines the three variables:
- Real wages: They're just that, average real wages.
- Elites: Mostly based around financial capital, especially the number of people in the top X% of society and how they compete for resources.
- State finances: Essentially state debt per capita
In writing his argument, Turchin argues that human history is defined by "secular cycles," which mostly fit into self-contained nation-states (this is something that I'm skeptical of, the work is a bit too "national," but legal limits on who can enter and who can leave mutes this criticism a bit). Secular cycles are essentially stability-instability cycles. The center point of a secular cycle is when tensions are the highest. In the first secular cycle (1780-1930), this was during the Civil War and its immediate aftermath. In the second secular cycle (1930-2080?), it's pretty much right now, or within the next 10-15 years. Turchin argues that tensions and, especially, political violence can be determined by demographic pressures, especially as a result of class. That's not to say Turchin is a Marxist--he's not, his theory of history is not one of the proletariat overthrowing the bourgeoisie. However, when population pressures drop, an "age of good feelings" emerges--for Turchin, the two "ages of good feelings" are the 1810s-20s and the 1940s-50s (with the exception of the war).
My two major criticisms is that, first, I think Turchin puts a bit too much emphasis on the role of material interests. He fits closely in the Charles Beard school of American history in that he sees economy as the defining factor in American society. Perhaps, but I think much more needs to be said about culture. Secondly, I don't really understand the choices that he made in quantifying his three variables. I don't have the book with me right now so I can't mention the exact equations he uses, but they seemed remarkably imprecise to me, to the point of being (nearly) pseudoscience. I don't want to insult Turchin in saying this, I see and appreciate what he's trying to do, but I don't find it to be useful.
Something that could have made the book interesting would be to add a predictive element, but I'm glad that he didn't, because I wouldn't trust it at all whatsoever. Nevertheless, his trends do line up with changes in American politics and society, as I see it, although he understates the importance of race, gender, and war/empire in examining his trends.
I wouldn't recommend this book to any historians, but it might be interested in those with more than passing interest in cliometrics.
- Real wages: They're just that, average real wages.
- Elites: Mostly based around financial capital, especially the number of people in the top X% of society and how they compete for resources.
- State finances: Essentially state debt per capita
In writing his argument, Turchin argues that human history is defined by "secular cycles," which mostly fit into self-contained nation-states (this is something that I'm skeptical of, the work is a bit too "national," but legal limits on who can enter and who can leave mutes this criticism a bit). Secular cycles are essentially stability-instability cycles. The center point of a secular cycle is when tensions are the highest. In the first secular cycle (1780-1930), this was during the Civil War and its immediate aftermath. In the second secular cycle (1930-2080?), it's pretty much right now, or within the next 10-15 years. Turchin argues that tensions and, especially, political violence can be determined by demographic pressures, especially as a result of class. That's not to say Turchin is a Marxist--he's not, his theory of history is not one of the proletariat overthrowing the bourgeoisie. However, when population pressures drop, an "age of good feelings" emerges--for Turchin, the two "ages of good feelings" are the 1810s-20s and the 1940s-50s (with the exception of the war).
My two major criticisms is that, first, I think Turchin puts a bit too much emphasis on the role of material interests. He fits closely in the Charles Beard school of American history in that he sees economy as the defining factor in American society. Perhaps, but I think much more needs to be said about culture. Secondly, I don't really understand the choices that he made in quantifying his three variables. I don't have the book with me right now so I can't mention the exact equations he uses, but they seemed remarkably imprecise to me, to the point of being (nearly) pseudoscience. I don't want to insult Turchin in saying this, I see and appreciate what he's trying to do, but I don't find it to be useful.
Something that could have made the book interesting would be to add a predictive element, but I'm glad that he didn't, because I wouldn't trust it at all whatsoever. Nevertheless, his trends do line up with changes in American politics and society, as I see it, although he understates the importance of race, gender, and war/empire in examining his trends.
I wouldn't recommend this book to any historians, but it might be interested in those with more than passing interest in cliometrics.
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